Interrupting a two-month streak of decline, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sequentially to $1.85 billion in July over $1.07 billion in June, an increase of 73 per cent. However, it was lower than the $2.18 billion in July last year, according to the Reserve Bank of India data. Outbound FDI, expressed as financial commitment, has three components - equity, loans, and guarantees.
Benchmark BSE Sensex closed above the historic 66,000-mark for the first time while NSE Nifty hit a new all-time closing high driven by heavy buying in IT counters and fresh foreign fund inflows. Optimism in global equity markets also helped the local markets maintain their winning momentum for a second day. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 502.01 points or 0.77 per cent to settle at its new all-time closing high of 66,060.90.
Sensex lacklustre, bluechips in focus.
Large Indian IT services companies are expected to report "muted" sequential show in a traditionally strong second quarter, as macroeconomic challenges continue to weigh on global discretionary spending, say market watchers. The big earnings week for tech heavyweights is up ahead, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) scheduled to announce its results on October 11, and both Infosys and HCL Technologies on October 12. Wipro is slated to declare its Q2FY24 results next week, on October 18.
Total revenue from operations however rose to Rs 67,081.29 crore as compared with Rs 59,818.22 crore in the year-ago period
India's external debt stood at $554.5 billion at end-June, recording a decrease of $3.9 billion over its level at the end of March 2020, the RBI said on Wednesday. Further, the external debt to GDP ratio increased to 21.8 per cent at June-end 2020 from 20.6 per cent as on March 31.
Growing at a robust rate due to economic reforms in key sectors like digitisation and infrastructure, India has emerged as a star performer and is projected to contribute more than 16 per cent of the global growth, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. "What we have been observing for quite some time now is that India has been growing at a very robust rate. "It's one of the star performers when it comes to real growth when you look at peer countries.
As a result, the deadline for filing June quarter results ends on August 15. However, only 1,538 companies out of the 4,000-odd listed firms managed to declare their results within the usual deadline.
The medium-term scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) is high risk due to the surging crude and gas prices. Apart from OPEC-plus cutting production, the Hamas-Israel conflict has caused fears of supply disruption. The July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24) saw positive surprises for OMCs. Strong gross refining margins (GRMs) more than offset weak marketing margins.
The stock of State Bank of India (SBI) may re-rate soon, believe analysts, if the lender manages to safeguard its net interest margin (NIM) going ahead. This, along with controlled credit costs, should aid the outlook of the stock which has been underperforming the markets for some time now. "We believe delivery of growth on guided lines, sustenance of NIMs near current levels, and controlled asset quality parameters aiding controlled credit costs should lead to strong profitability and drive re-rating of the stock," said analysts at JM Financial.
It's all eyes on the consumer durables sector during the festival season after a weak Q1FY24 and Q2FY24 was impacted by an erratic monsoon. Traditionally, this period sees the highest number of purchases. Dealers and manufacturers are complaining about low business-to-consumer (B2C) off-take during the first half.
Institutional investment in real estate jumped nearly 9-fold during the April-June quarter to $1.35 billion, mainly driven by the inflow of funds in the warehousing projects, according to property consultant JLL India. In its 'Capital Markets Update Q2 2021', JLL India reported that institutional investors deployed $1,357 million in real estate during the second quarter of the 2022 calendar year as against a mere $155 million in the year-ago period.
Manappuram declared consolidated assets under management (AUM) growth of 27 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) (5.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q) to Rs 38,950 crore. Net interest income (NII) saw a margin expansion of 24 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q to 15.44 per cent.
A muted revenue performance in the September quarter and weak management commentary weighed on the stock of consumer major Marico which shed 8.5 per cent to Rs 542 from its intraday highs on Tuesday. The company indicated that demand trends were similar to that of the June quarter with instances of increasing food prices and below-normal rainfall distribution in some regions impeding the anticipated recovery in rural demand.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) was down 1.06 per cent in trade on margin pressures in Q1FY24, mixed market share outlook, and earnings impact due to the buyout of Suzuki Motor Gujarat. While MSIL has decided to terminate the contract manufacturing agreement and acquire Suzuki Motor Gujarat, the quantum of payment and mode (cash/equity swap) has not been decided. If the cash option is opted for, there would be a 3.5-4 per cent hit to MSIL's FY25 earnings per share as the deal is expected to be completed by the end of the current financial year.
From the Sensex pack, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, NTPC and UltraTech Cement emerged as major winners, closing the day with a gain of up to 3.33 per cent. On the other hand, Asian Paints, ITC, L&T and SBI were the laggards, ending the session up to 3.95 per cent lower. Of the 30 Sensex stocks, 14 closed the day in green, while on the 50-stock index Nifty 25 scrips ended with gains.
However, the second quarter of FY24 is expected to be muted, and, with that, the hope of double-digit growth is now being pushed to FY25. However, analysts are expecting the momentum in the closure of record total contract values (TCVs) will continue, as has been the case over the last two quarters.
Indian IT services sector's revenue growth will slow down to 3 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.2 per cent in the previous financial year, a domestic ratings company said on Tuesday. Icra Ratings said the profitability will also take a beating in this financial year and the operating profit margin will narrow by up to 1 percentage point to 20-21 per cent. The topline growth will come down to 3-5 per cent in FY24 from the 9.2 per cent posted in FY23, the agency said, attributing the slowdown to softening demand.
The growth in the contact-intensive portion of the economy trailed our expectation, highlighting how imperative it is for confidence to improve, either through accelerated vaccinations or otherwise, to drive a sustainable recovery in these sectors, asserts Aditi Nayar.
The country's current account deficit widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September, from 2.2 per cent GDP during the April-June period, due to higher trade gap, as per data released by the Reserve Bank on Thursday. "India's current account balance recorded a deficit of $36.4 billion (4.4 per cent of GDP) in Q2:2022-23, up from $18.2 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP) in Q1:2022-23 and a deficit of $9.7 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) a year ago [i.e., Q2:2021-22]," the RBI said.
Standalone total income increased to Rs 74,457.86 crore in the first quarter of 2020-21, from Rs 70,653.23 crore in the same period a year ago.
In the July to September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24), Voltas' revenues grew by 29.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), but the adjusted net profit was down by 63 per cent Y-o-Y. The revenues hit Rs 2,290 crore, led by growth in the Unitary Cooling Products segment (up 15.4 per cent Y-o-Y, and in the EMP (Electromechanical project) business (up 66.8 per cent Y-o-Y). The UCP revenue rose to Rs 1,200 crore in Q2FY24, driven by volume growth despite weak consumer spending - the three-year annual growth is 18 per cent.
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
'When you plot the growth, -- 7.5 per cent for Q2, 0.4 per cent for Q3, 1.6 per cent for Q4 and 20.1 per cent for Q1 now -- all you see is a 'V'.' 'You don't see any other alphabet in the shape there.'
The One97 Communications stock saw a surge in interest as the company's operating performance update for August was considered positive by the Street. In addition, there was a news buzz as the company released a new hitech soundbox, which has longer battery life and processes all major cards. The performance indicates that the company, which is better known by its Paytm brandname, is still on course to achieve its guidance of going cashflow positive by the end of the 2023-24 financial year (FY24).
From the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Titan, Reliance Industries and Nestle were the major winners. Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, State Bank of India, Asian Paints and Wipro were the laggards.
According to experts, work from home, volatility in stock markets worldwide, and redemption pressures compelled investors to defer new investment plans.
Trading in the equity market this week will be highly influenced by a host of important triggers, with quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS, Wipro, and domestic inflation and IIP data taking the centre stage in dictating the movement in equities, analysts said. Besides, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors will also drive markets. "We are approaching the first quarter earnings season, with HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro set to report their earnings this week.
TVS Motor Company has been one of the best-performing two-wheeler stocks in the current financial year (FY24), enriching investors with gains of 24 per cent. Among listed two-wheeler stocks, only Hero MotoCorp has done better in this period. New launches, market share gains, steady margins and expectations that its performance will continue in FY24 are expected to support TVS Motor's stock.
At Rs 919 crore, InterGlobe Aviation, the parent firm of low-cost airline IndiGo, posted its best-ever fourth quarterly net profit in the January-to-March quarter (Q4) of financial year 2022-23 (FY23). The bottom-line, however, was lower than the Street's expectations where estimates ranged from Rs 1,160 crore to Rs 2,180 crore. On the bourses, shares of IndiGo have added just 30 paise (0.01 per cent) since the announcement of the Q4-FY23 results on May 18.
Phishing attacks could either be in the form of an email from a trusted source asking for personal information such as passwords, bank details and personal details, or it could mimic an existing website or webpage and trick a user into entering confidential information on the page.
Higher inflation has again become a matter of concern for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. After prices of commodities like sugar and wheat moved higher and stabilised at those levels, the crude oil too surged, adding to FMCG firms' worries. Besides, a dry spell in August in the ongoing monsoon season impacted rural demand.
Shares of ICICI Bank may outperform those of HDFC Bank in the near-term, analysts said recently, after the Sandeep Bakhshi-led private sector lender reported a strong set of numbers for the July to September quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The result, they said, reiterated that ICICI Bank is maintaining a sustainable and prudent growth led by tech-driven initiatives as against HDFC Bank, which is facing merger related challenges. According to analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher, ICICI Bank is valued at par with HDFC Bank at 2.2x/1.9x on FY25/26E core adjusted book value (ABV) basis.
Facebook parent Meta announced on Wednesday to slash around 11,000 jobs as a part of mass layoffs to cut expenses and transform its business model. As the tech industry is slashing jobs, Meta too announced layoffs. "We are also taking a number of additional steps to become a leaner and more efficient company by cutting discretionary spending and extending our hiring freeze through Q1," said Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a statement on Wednesday.
Core retail segments like motor and health continue to report strong growth of 19-20 per cent with competitive intensity still visible in the motor OD (owner driven) segment. Commercial lines reported muted growth. Group health remains a key driver. Among the listed companies, ICICI Lombard continues to trail in the motor section while Star Health has lost its Y-o-Y retail market share although its better on a sequential basis.
The Rs 2,000 note withdrawal decision and response to it so far suggest that the move can help boost FY24 GDP growth to beyond 6.5 per cent estimated by the RBI, a report said on Monday. The real GDP growth for the first quarter of FY24 will come at 8.1 per cent with an upward bias and the Reserve Bank of India's 6.5 per cent estimate can also be exceeded, economists at the country's largest lender SBI said. "We expect Q1 FY24 GDP growth at 8.1 per cent with an upward bias due to the impact of Rs 2000 note withdrawal event...this reinforces our projection that FY24 GDP could be higher than 6.5 per cent, basis the RBI estimate," a note said.
Infosys was the only large-cap IT player to report sequential constant currency (cc) revenue growth for the June quarter (1 per cent ), which was ahead of analyst expectations, but the company's sharp downward revision in its growth guidance took most brokerages by surprise. In line with the cut in its FY24 revenue guidance (cc) to 1-3.5 per cent, brokerages have unanimously reduced FY24 EPS estimates for the company in the range of 2-4 per cent, though the Street is likely fearing even further downside, they say. Global brokerages Macquarie and Nomura downgraded Infosys to underperform and reduce ratings, respectively, with the latter cutting the target price to Rs 1210 from Rs 1260.
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The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
This could be attributed to the attractive valuation of the Indian equities after the sharp correction during the first quarter of calendar year 2020 and significant depreciation of the Indian rupee against USD, which provided them a rather good entry point.
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